Extreme Risk Management: Revolutionary Approaches to Evaluating and Measuring Risk

Extreme Risk Management: Revolutionary Approaches to Evaluating and Measuring Risk by Christina Ray
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ISBN
9780071759564
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eBook
 
 

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A revolutionary new approach for detecting and managing inherent risk

The unprecedented turmoil in the financial markets turned the field of quantitative finance on its head and generated severe criticism of the statistical models used to manage risk and predict “black swan” events. Something very important had been lost when statistical representations replaced expert knowledge and statistics substituted for causation.

Extreme Risk Management brings causation into the equation. The use of causal models in risk management, securities valuation, and portfolio management provides a real and much-needed alternative to the stochastic models used so far. Providing an alternative tool for risk modeling and scenario-building in stress-testing, this game-changing book uses causal models that help you:

Evaluate risk with extraordinary accuracy

Predict devastating worst-case scenarios

Enhance transparency

Facilitate better decision making

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Plausibility vs. Probability: Alternative World Views

The Evolution of Modern Analytics

Risk Management Metrics and Models

The Future as Forecast: Assumptions Implicit in Stochastic Risk Measurement Models

An Alternative Path to Actionable Intelligence

Solutions: Moving Toward a Connectivist Approach

An Introduction to Causality: Theory, Models, and Inference

Risk Inference Networks: Estimating Vulnerability, Consequences, and Likelihood

Securities Valuation, Risk Measurement, and Portfolio Management Using Causal Models

Risk Fusion and Super Models: A Framework for Enterprise Risk Management

Inferring Causality from Historical Market Behavior

Sensemaking for Warnings: Reverse-Engineering Market Intelligence

The United States as Enterprise: Implications for National Policy and Security
ISBN:
9780071759564
Publication Date:
07 / 06 / 2010

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